Hey, folks. Happy New Year. Wound up well in the black for '03, but it was still a BRUTAL year all the way around. If I had only stuck to what I know...stupid ball sports!
Live and learn. The good news is, awards season is here again, and this - next to MMA - is my strongest segment of the books. Those who have read my posts in '03 can confirm this. (Heck, you can also do a search.) Hopefully, I can get off to a good start right out of the gate.
The bad news is, OLY has chopped limits to $200, down from $500 last year. You can also only bet on a contestant once every seven days, instead of right after a line move. In light of this, I had to adjust my strategy a little bit, and tried to go for more 'dogs in the hopes that if you throw enough at the wall, something will stick. If I could've put my entire bankroll on Charlize Theron, we wouldn't "be" here.
But we are. And so here we go with my predics for the Golden Globes, airing January 25. Remember: awards shows are unique in that you're NOT trying to predict the future, but trying to guess what's already taken place (the voting). Furthermore, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) only consists of around 90 members, most of whom would whore themselves out for a kiss or handshake from a star.
I'm sure the odds have moved since I've laid down. Best of luck.
Best Drama Series
Nip/Tuck +800
$200 to win $1600
Tom O'Neil's GoldDerby site (an invaluable reference) has this pegged as a 7/5 favorite to win. While that's comforting, my main reason for going with this is the HFPA's penchant for honoring cutting edge entertainment: they like being "first" out of the gate with a nod. "Nip/Tuck" got good notices, and the Globes enjoyed "The Shield" last year, another gritty rookie. The other contenders are old hat ("24," "Six Feet," "West Wing"). Time for some new blood. Generous odds, IMO.
Best Supporting Actor, Drama
Alec Baldwin, +1000
$200 to win $2,000
Another so-called "sure thing," with Tim Robbins taking the statue. But Baldwin delivered a great performance and voters enjoy thinking that they've somehow put someone back in the spotlight. I think his chances are much, much better than 10-1. We'll see.
Best Actress, TV Drama
Amber Tamblyn +600
$200 to win $1200
Tamblyn is everything the Globes like: new, young, and cute. They went for Felicity (I forget her name) and others in the past. She's also on a well-liked show that seems to be the antidote to all the R-rated content on cable these days. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jennifer Garner win, but this was too tempting not to go for.
Best Director (s)
Clint Eastwood +800
$100 to win $800
Sofia Coppola +1500
$200 to win $3,000
Jackson is such a huge favorite that it's gotten silly, around -400 at OLY. Fact is, while "Rings" is a total lock (yes, I used the word: sue me) to win Best Drama, there is no absolute guarantee that they'll double up on rewarding Jackson.
Eastwood, for one, has won each of the last two times he was nominated. Taking 8-1 on a guy batting a perfect game isn't that stupid. You also need to realize that the HFPA likes stars and star power, and they WILL play favorites. Also consider that the vast majority of members are over 60 (some are nearly 90!), and Clint suddenly becomes a contemporary.
On the other hand, the group also loves rewarding the newcomers: I think "Lost in Translation" could take a hit to "Finding Nemo" or "Love, Actually" and this could be the perfect spot in which to provide a mild upset in the form of Coppola. As the story goes, she's also loved by the group. It's also a rare occasion that awards show have a chance to honor a female director. Close to half of the HFPA is female. Again, very generous odds, all things considered.
Best Actor, Drama
Tom Cruise +1200
$110 to win $1,300
Yes, yes: Sean Penn. It's all about Penn. Never mind the fact that he's a sourpuss, hates the press, and never even bothered attending their luncheon this year. I think the Academy knows he's destined for their award: the Globes, meanwhile, haven't picked the Oscar winner for Best Actor correctly in five years. Since Penn seems cinch to win the bald dude, it would be almost odd if he took one here.
I see a lot of Kingsley buzz, but Cruise provides that star power for the telecast, and he's already picked up three statues in the past decade. They like him a lot.
And if you like the really crazy conspiracy theories...typically, last year's winner in the opposite gender presents this year's winner with the award. That means Nicole Kidman would hand off the Globe for Best Actor to her ex, Cruise. That kind of scene would keep the Globes in the press for days afterward.
I admit this is a long shot, but with low limits, you gotta aim for the fences.
Best Actress, TV Comedy
Bitty Schramm +1000
$150 to win $1,500
"Monk" is still the "In" show, they awarded Shaloub last year, and this could be a spot to rock the boat and do something different. Entertainment Weekly agrees with me. The only real stumbling block here is Sarah Jessica Parker, but shit, aren't three statues for her friggin' enough already?
Also: congrats to anyone who got "Finding Nemo" at +1000 when it opened. At those odds, it was the best prop on the card. Odds are 50/50 at worst, between this and "Lost in Translation." I was pissed I couldn't get to it in time.
That about cleans me out: if my math is good, I only need one of these folks (aside from Eastwood) to come in to make for a profitable evening or at least break even. Two or more and I can get my root canal. Yay.
That's all, folks. Good luck.
Live and learn. The good news is, awards season is here again, and this - next to MMA - is my strongest segment of the books. Those who have read my posts in '03 can confirm this. (Heck, you can also do a search.) Hopefully, I can get off to a good start right out of the gate.
The bad news is, OLY has chopped limits to $200, down from $500 last year. You can also only bet on a contestant once every seven days, instead of right after a line move. In light of this, I had to adjust my strategy a little bit, and tried to go for more 'dogs in the hopes that if you throw enough at the wall, something will stick. If I could've put my entire bankroll on Charlize Theron, we wouldn't "be" here.
But we are. And so here we go with my predics for the Golden Globes, airing January 25. Remember: awards shows are unique in that you're NOT trying to predict the future, but trying to guess what's already taken place (the voting). Furthermore, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) only consists of around 90 members, most of whom would whore themselves out for a kiss or handshake from a star.
I'm sure the odds have moved since I've laid down. Best of luck.
Best Drama Series
Nip/Tuck +800
$200 to win $1600
Tom O'Neil's GoldDerby site (an invaluable reference) has this pegged as a 7/5 favorite to win. While that's comforting, my main reason for going with this is the HFPA's penchant for honoring cutting edge entertainment: they like being "first" out of the gate with a nod. "Nip/Tuck" got good notices, and the Globes enjoyed "The Shield" last year, another gritty rookie. The other contenders are old hat ("24," "Six Feet," "West Wing"). Time for some new blood. Generous odds, IMO.
Best Supporting Actor, Drama
Alec Baldwin, +1000
$200 to win $2,000
Another so-called "sure thing," with Tim Robbins taking the statue. But Baldwin delivered a great performance and voters enjoy thinking that they've somehow put someone back in the spotlight. I think his chances are much, much better than 10-1. We'll see.
Best Actress, TV Drama
Amber Tamblyn +600
$200 to win $1200
Tamblyn is everything the Globes like: new, young, and cute. They went for Felicity (I forget her name) and others in the past. She's also on a well-liked show that seems to be the antidote to all the R-rated content on cable these days. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jennifer Garner win, but this was too tempting not to go for.
Best Director (s)
Clint Eastwood +800
$100 to win $800
Sofia Coppola +1500
$200 to win $3,000
Jackson is such a huge favorite that it's gotten silly, around -400 at OLY. Fact is, while "Rings" is a total lock (yes, I used the word: sue me) to win Best Drama, there is no absolute guarantee that they'll double up on rewarding Jackson.
Eastwood, for one, has won each of the last two times he was nominated. Taking 8-1 on a guy batting a perfect game isn't that stupid. You also need to realize that the HFPA likes stars and star power, and they WILL play favorites. Also consider that the vast majority of members are over 60 (some are nearly 90!), and Clint suddenly becomes a contemporary.
On the other hand, the group also loves rewarding the newcomers: I think "Lost in Translation" could take a hit to "Finding Nemo" or "Love, Actually" and this could be the perfect spot in which to provide a mild upset in the form of Coppola. As the story goes, she's also loved by the group. It's also a rare occasion that awards show have a chance to honor a female director. Close to half of the HFPA is female. Again, very generous odds, all things considered.
Best Actor, Drama
Tom Cruise +1200
$110 to win $1,300
Yes, yes: Sean Penn. It's all about Penn. Never mind the fact that he's a sourpuss, hates the press, and never even bothered attending their luncheon this year. I think the Academy knows he's destined for their award: the Globes, meanwhile, haven't picked the Oscar winner for Best Actor correctly in five years. Since Penn seems cinch to win the bald dude, it would be almost odd if he took one here.
I see a lot of Kingsley buzz, but Cruise provides that star power for the telecast, and he's already picked up three statues in the past decade. They like him a lot.
And if you like the really crazy conspiracy theories...typically, last year's winner in the opposite gender presents this year's winner with the award. That means Nicole Kidman would hand off the Globe for Best Actor to her ex, Cruise. That kind of scene would keep the Globes in the press for days afterward.
I admit this is a long shot, but with low limits, you gotta aim for the fences.
Best Actress, TV Comedy
Bitty Schramm +1000
$150 to win $1,500
"Monk" is still the "In" show, they awarded Shaloub last year, and this could be a spot to rock the boat and do something different. Entertainment Weekly agrees with me. The only real stumbling block here is Sarah Jessica Parker, but shit, aren't three statues for her friggin' enough already?
Also: congrats to anyone who got "Finding Nemo" at +1000 when it opened. At those odds, it was the best prop on the card. Odds are 50/50 at worst, between this and "Lost in Translation." I was pissed I couldn't get to it in time.
That about cleans me out: if my math is good, I only need one of these folks (aside from Eastwood) to come in to make for a profitable evening or at least break even. Two or more and I can get my root canal. Yay.
That's all, folks. Good luck.
